Yesterday’s press conference with Swedish Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson and Finnish Prime Minister, Sanna Marin sent a very clear message on NATO’s changing order. First, they are leaving the diplomatic door open to Turkey to cooperate and fulfill their sham agreement on their membership bid, and secondly that if Turkey doesn’t cooperate or fulfill its deal, it will absolutely make no difference to the dynamic and politics of NATO since Turkey is already completely excluded in this. It should be obvious by now that Hungary and Turkey with their particular positions are a minority in NATO as NATO’s political position is dictated by the common ground of its European members – mostly pro-Ukraine.

The good news is that Finland and Sweden will not give anything else to Sultan Erdogan and he is being made increasingly irrelevant as he tries to play his own imperialistic games while juggling his NATO membership. Slowly but steadily the international-political dynamics are making Turkey’s NATO membership with NATO increasingly incompatible as it increasingly becomes a liability to its common position. Greece is experiencing this situation on a first-hand basis. Gradually, NATO may also come to learn that Turkey’s army is not as glorious and all-mighty as it is perceived to be. Erdogan wants a war in Syria to prove his force and extent Turkey’s interests at the expense of the Kurds, and he does not afford to lose face and be humiliated, but using force on an extensive scale would cause a war in the region that eventually increases his stakes and defeat its purpose. Erdogan is by now, surely aware that he does not want to repeat the same mistakes Putin did in Ukraine.

Erdogan can’t keep playing the double agent between the Russia-Iranian axis and Europe and his imperialist interests are too over-extended and complicated: Cyprus with Greece, Syria with Russia and Assad and the Kurds, Iraq with the US and Iran, and more. Sultan Erdogan would prefer if he could extend his interests in these regions by force but his biggest problem is that the EU is Turkey’s biggest trading partner and the West is basically Turkey’s biggest source of foreign income. Istanbul thrives on imported Dollars and Euros and Erdogan needs our money more than we need Turkey. Erdogan’s imperialist dreams have to wait until the Dollar collapses (highly unlikely) unless he wants to send his country straight into poverty. This leaves NATO with a changing dynamic. Basically what Turkey is going through in NATO is also similar to what Hungary is going through in the EU’s decision-making process. Hungary is increasingly becoming irrelevant to EU decision-making on foreign affairs and Hungary will keep losing its clout and influence in the EU through any means possible as long as it keeps siding with Europe’s enemies: every bureaucrat in the EU will make sure that this happens.

The new global dynamic of NATO is changing with Turkey becoming more irrelevant and Europe becoming stronger with Finland and Sweden in NATO. Finland and Sweden don’t even need to be in NATO – they are already NATO allies and provide full assistance to Ukraine in coordination with NATO. Finland and Sweden have more say in the politics of NATO through the EU because after-all NATO politics is dictated by its members which are mostly European and these European members are supposedly pulling the same defense and war policy. This is one of the rare times that the Byzantine system of European institutions has worked in its favour, practically by acting as the robot bureaucrat to Turkey and Hungary and cutting them down to pieces with bureaucratic processes. Turkey and Hungary are now irrelevant thanks to filing cabinets and clerks who have to process files and applications. And this is a good thing. Turkey does not stand for NATO’s and Europe’s values of rule of law and democracy. Erdogan is an authoritarian who prefers to play an imperialistic game that goes as far as Libya. Orban is openly siding with Russia on Ukraine.

The world order is changing. Democracies are learning that it is better if they work together rather than undercutting each other to win deals with China and other authoritarian powers: France and Germany still have to learn this lesson. On the other hand, authoritarian states are becoming increasingly reluctant to pursue their imperialistic interests with a more united West and as a result, the world is becoming a safer place. Even if this may sound cold-blooded, the reality is that the West’s position on Ukraine has served as a great blow to any authoritarian’s dreams of imperialist expansion and the West is becoming better in its defense.