My theory that Russia will turn into another Venezuelan economic failure is based on the outcome of the energy war which I am convinced the West will win.
Similarly to Venezuela, the national jewels of Russia are its national energy-producing companies such as Gazprom. When the going got tough in Venezuela, corrupt government officials raided the coffers of their national oil companies and the major Venezuelan oil-company PDVSA became a personal money pot for the Maduro regime.
The idea that international gas prices may go lower as Russian production of gas subsides due to its potential incoming crisis may sound counter-intuitive, but this is exactly what happened to Venezuela as oil prices crashed.
Sorry but Russia is nowhere near like Venezuela. Not even close. Russia has a more bigger economy and is well advanced. The sanctions will only make it more self sufficient and is a godsend for the Kremlin. Venezuela has no oil refineries and its oil is a very heavy crude (actually tar) and can only be refined in very few places, with the US being one of them. Russia has gas, oil and lots of other commodities which it will be selling to Asia. It does not need Europe. Europe is in trouble and because of lack of gas will be de-industrializing.The US made sure of it by blowing up NS1 and 2 gass lines.
The West reckoned that Russia would be broken in the first week that sanctions where applied. Look where the ruble is now.
Time will tell.
I’ve allowed this comment because it contrasts with the abuse and trolling that I receive from Labour trolls on a daily basis.
I would suggest you read some of my other articles about Russia to clear up some of the misinformation you have. You seem to believe in Labour’s myth of “Russia’s invincibility”. Russia’s economy is going to the toilet because of the sanctions.
The Rouble seems to be strong because the selling of Roubles is prohibited in Russia, so the price is artificial and reflects its value only in Russia. Once capital controls are eased and Roubles could be sold again, it is going to 0.
I’ll be wrting more to clear up these misconceptions.
Nothing of what you say is actually borne by truth. Russian propaganda will obviously be embellished to put it mildly. Boggles the mind how someone who lives in a democratic society assumes that information from a dictator holds any truth.
The Russian economy even before the sanctions was the size of Spain. For such a huge advanced country and a population of some 150 million that should already be an indication something is not right.
Lets take the electronic industry for starters. Russia virtually has no homegrown micro-processing chip industry. Its non existent. China is in a similar albeit not such a disastrous state in the field. While Taiwan and the rest of the democratic world are leaders. Without such a sophisticated industry no advanced nation will ever have the power and/or the clout to dictate its will on others.
Its the same as when mechanised industry changed economies and warfare. Distasteful as I find this to be the reality is technological advancement in the competitive private sector drives the capability of a country to wage war. The railway, steam engine and the petrol engine gave the west and Japan the ability to build empires. This technology which Russia still depends on is not just obsolete but utterly useless. Hence why Russia resorts to carpet bombings and weapons of mass destruction. Those are futile since now many have them and enough to wipe out all of Russia. Even Israel with its small number of 90 can do that.
So how long do you really think Russia can hold out isolated not being able to import any technology and selling oil to China at a very cut rate? Its become a game of who can hold out the longest. The economies of EU and US versus that of isolated Russia. China can keep it on life support but all that means is that Russia will simply be owned by the Chinese long term. I doubt the Russian people are going to like that eventually and see this Putin foolishness for what it really is. The last gasps of a diminished empire.
I’m no troll or labour or pn. I’m just a nobody wanting a fair and equitable society/world. I do enjoy your articles about local politics – they’re enlightening. As for being misinformed – probably true but I always keep an open mind. If you believe what has been said Russia should have been toast the first week they applied the sanctions….8 months on and they’re still there. I believe Russia holds all the cards whereas for Venezuela the US holds the cards.
Time will tell if we live that long. Nobody is talking about how close we are to a nuclear war. It is worse than the Cuban missile crises in the 60s.
I’ll make sure to make a detailed write-up soon.