I’m of the understanding that several liberal commentators have an absolute and sure answer to the question “Where is the line of war with Russia?”, and they say it is NATO. I’m not so sure. Anyone, who is so absolutely sure that the line is NATO is being obnoxious. I don’t have the answer to where the line is drawn but I am also definitely sure that there is not one single and definite answer to the question. There are various probabilities and potential case scenarios and history is very versatile not to say dialectical. Lines on maps and agreements between states, change, get crossed and broken, vetoed down, abrogated and history is ever-changing. NATO was meant to defend Western Europe from a super-power, but it is now faced with an enemy and adversary much weaker yet more barbaric.
If it was the case that NATO is the line, NATO would have never bombed Serbia in 1999 to avert genocide and further slaughter by the Serbian state against its minorities. Putin has already committed war crimes in Syria, bombing hospitals (targeted and deliberately), and civilians in aid of his puppet regime of Bashar Al-Assad. Therefore, what now? Will Putin be allowed to commit war crimes in Europe too? Will he be given a pass for war crimes in Europe simply because he has nuclear weapons?
I do not have an answer to these questions. I’m only saying that those who hold absolute and sure answers to these complex questions are obnoxious and completely ignorant of what is at stake.
Gary Kasparov in a Tweet seems to have made a very interesting point on the risk factor of Putin and chess players understand risk.